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November 10, 2024

Early and Absentee Turnout Program Becomes Defining Factor in Republican Senate Majority Victories, Sentinel Action Fund $30 Million Investment in Senate Specific Ground Game Reaches New and Low-Propensity Voters

WASHINGTON – Sentinel Action Fund President Jessica Anderson released a statement following Republicans’ historic Senate majority victory.

“The major victory for the SAF-backed Senate candidates in Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania provides a new playbook for campaigns to win tough races by embracing absentee-early vote and ground game turn out. 

This new Senate majority positions Republicans as strong partners to President Trump to strengthen our economy, lower inflation, secure the border and protect our families. Now, conservatives will be able to solve the problems created by the Democrats over the last four years and restore the American Dream for the next generation. 

Sentinel Action Fund congratulates our battleground endorsed Senators-Elect Bernie Moreno, Tim Sheehy, and Dave McCormick, as well as Senators-Elect Jim Justice (R-WV), Jim Banks (R-IN), and John Curtis (R-UT) who helped build the new Senate majority. 

Over the past 10 months, Sentinel Action Fund invested heavily in turning out low-propensity voters in the key battleground states of Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania as well as a ballot chase operation in Nevada.  Across all of these states, Sentinel Action Fund invested $30.1 million in multichannel campaigns, which included knocking on over 2.8 million doors, making over 3.3 million phone calls, sending 18,020,710 text messages, and delivering 13,000,933 mailers. To bolster these efforts, our team added in a robust digital campaign, with 140,636,184 total digital ad views.

Republicans have proven that a robust ground game coupled with a clear policy vision and stellar candidate are the key to winning tough races.”

Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) added:

“After my experience on the ground in the 2022 Senate elections, it was clear to me that Republicans could not continue to surrender to Democrats on early and mail voting. It was like watching a football team wait until the 4th quarter to start trying to score while the other team built an insurmountable lead.

As a lifelong businessman, my focus was supporting and empowering people who could actually execute a strategy to improve our get-out-the-vote operation, and Jessica Anderson and Sentinel Action Fund were the clear choice. 

This effort has paid extraordinary dividends. SAF initially focused on three states with Democrat incumbents—Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana—and went three for three in delivering both major Republican absentee/early voting improvement and victories for President Trump and Republican Senators-elect Dave McCormick, Bernie Moreno, and Tim Sheehy. Later, SAF also got involved in Nevada, where Sam Brown made a late charge, and where President Trump was victorious.

While the foundation has been laid, the fight is not over. Now, the goal is to build on this work, heading into 2026, 2028, and beyond, to ensure that we permanently eliminate Democrats’ early/mail voting advantage and deliver durable Republican majorities for years to come.”

SENTINEL ACTION FUND STATE-BY-STATE:

Montana

  • In Montana, Sentinel Action Fund invested $5.3 million to target and engage 120,000 low-propensity Republican voters.
  • 112 canvassers have knocked on 359,069 doors state-wide, and our team has sent 1,616,594 mail pieces and 2,046,098 text messages to voters. Additionally, the team used a digital strategy with ads, which saw 27,565,549 views.
  • Why this mattered? This work set the stage for a historic victory in Montana as Tim Sheehy went into Election Day with a 5% advantage from the early vote. Of the 187K early GOP votes cast, 51,763 came from low propensity voters, or 27%. Heading into Election Day, Sentinel Action Fund’s internal modeling showed Tim Sheehy likely ahead by 19,945 ballots (mail and in person). Of the 190K early GOP votes cast, 98,901 came from our mid to low-propensity audience, or 43%.

Ohio

  • In Ohio, Sentinel Action Fund invested $12.8 million to target 862,544 low-propensity Republican voters.
  • With a ground team of 190 door knockers, Sentinel Action Fund canvassers knocked on 927,960 doors. This is in addition to 7,363,022 total mailers from 22 unique mail pieces and 4,405,396 total text messages. In Ohio, Sentinel Action Fund’s digital ads saw 76,608,392 views.
  • Why this mattered? By engaging low propensity voters early and often, these efforts helped send Moreno into Election Day with significant early vote momentum. Heading into Election Day, Sentinel Action Fund’s internal modeling shows Bernie Moreno was likely ahead by 47,095 ballots. Of the 1.2 million early GOP votes cast, 301,390 — or 25% — came from the lowest propensity voters. 352,434 came from our mid to low-propensity audience, or 41%.

 Pennsylvania

  • In Pennsylvania, Sentinel Action Fund invested $9.8 million to target 998,042 low-propensity Republican voters and encouraged them to request absentee ballots and join the permanent AB list.
  • Working with RSLC and Keystone Renewal, Sentinel Action Fund has produced over 1.2 million door knocks with a team of 333 canvassers nationwide that reached 845,923 households.
  • In addition to the work RSLC and Keystone Renewal did, SAF added 14 unique mailers with 4,021,317 total mail pieces, 12 rounds of text messages with 11,185,740 total text messages, 3 rounds of live calls with 530,273 total phone calls, and over 4 million digital ad views in October.
  • Why this mattered? We drove early voting among hundreds of thousands of low-propensity Republicans to bank tens of thousands of additional votes for Dave McCormick — votes which otherwise would have gone uncast. McCormick received 643,030 early votes, of which 323,403 came from our low-propensity targeting. This represents 50% of the absentee and early vote and 10% of the entire McCormick vote (3,358,125 total votes cast for McCormick).
  • Dave McCormick entered Election Day without the insurmountable early-vote deficits experienced in previous cycles.

Nevada

  • In Nevada, Sentinel Action Fund invested $2.2 million to target 231,233 low-propensity Republican voters. Specifically, Sentinel Action Fund invested in a robust ballot harvesting operation with a canvassing team of 83 door knockers who reached over 300,000 doors. Additionally, Sentinel Action Fund sent 383,476 total text messages and made 444,452 phone calls.
  • Why this mattered? This helped fuel momentum for Sam Brown and Republicans among low-propensity Republican voters, with nearly 50% of early GOP votes being cast by these non-habitual, or first time voters.

BACKGROUND: