Press Releases

WASHINGTON – Today, the Sentinel Action Fund released a new poll showing exceedingly close Presidential and Senate races in Pennsylvania with Republican Dave McCormick closing in on Democrat Senator Bob Casey. Specifically, the poll shows the presidential race at a statistical tie (47% each) and the Senate race well within the margin of error with Casey only leading McCormick in a statistical tie (45% to 44%).

Jessica Anderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund, released the following statement:

“Control of both the White House and the Senate majority will likely be decided by voters in Pennsylvania, and Sentinel Action Fund’s new polling shows Republicans are in a strong position heading into November. It’s clear Republicans are closing in on Democrats, and with independent votes still up for grabs, President Trump and Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick will be able to tip the scales.

The most important thing Republicans can do over the next five weeks is get voters to the polls. Sentinel Action Fund and our partners at RSLC and Keystone Renewal PAC have been on the ground over the course of the year deploying new election tools and tactics to help low propensity voters embrace mail-in and early, in-person voting. As a result, our efforts in Pennsylvania have more than doubled the number of Republicans requesting mail-in ballots compared to the number in 2020, and this number will only grow as we still have over a month to go until Election Day.

The Left has spent years building out mail-in and absentee campaign infrastructure in Pennsylvania. This coalition’s work has helped Republicans catch up far quicker than otherwise expected. Through our efforts, nearly 120,000 Republican voters joined the permanent vote-by-mail list in 2024, with one-third of these individuals being low-propensity voters. We're narrowing the gap by pushing people who don't always vote to go ahead and bank their vote before Election Day. In 2020, only 35 GOP voters used vote-by-mail for every 100 Democrats who did so, and in 2024, that number is currently 42 GOP voters for every 100 Democrats. Elections are won on the margins, and this progress, contrasted by the falling voter registration trends among Democrats in Pennsylvania, is a clear indication that we've made important gains to increase Republican turnout in 2024.

Ultimately, this poll shows that the new GOTV strategy to embrace tools like mail-in and early, in-person voting is working. In Pennsylvania, Republicans are going into Election Day with bigger momentum and more votes than ever before, having ensured that a record number of low-frequency voters on the Right cast their ballots during the early voting period.”

BACKGROUND:

• LINK: Poll Memo
• The survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. on behalf of Sentinel Action Fund. The survey consists of 800 likely general election voters and was stratified by county to reflect historical turnout. Live caller interviews were conducted (70% cellphone) from September 28th to 29th, 2024. The survey's margin of error is ±3.5%.
• The results for the Presidential ballot test show a race locked up at 47% each. The Senate race is also extremely close, with Casey leading McCormick in a statistical tie (45% to 44%), well inside the margin of error.
• Earlier this year, the Sentinel Action Fund, RSLC, and Keystone Renewal PAC announced a historic eight-figure investment for the largest ever vote-by-mail initiative in Pennsylvania.
• The Sentinel Action Fund is the only conservative super PAC with a year-round ground game committed to turning out absentee, early vote, and "day of" voters